Why did California's billionaire tax fail to surf the blue wave?

Two economists debate what California's vote on Prop 40 means for the wealth tax movement.

<img src='https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/dims3/default/strip/false/crop/4800x3094+0+0/resize/4800x3094!/quality/85/format/webp/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fnpr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Ffd%2Fe9%2F4260d1c741d6a442c99d170242ac%2Fgettyimages-2272919338.jpg' alt='Ultrasound Technologist Mayra Castaneda speaks in front of healthcare workers holding placards in support of the Billionaire Tax during a media briefing in Los Angeles on April 27, 2026. Healthcare workers and allies outlined the next steps in their effort to get California's Billionaire Tax on the ballot for the November election, with their efforts already exceeding 1,500,000 signatures collected from across the state. The initiative would levy a one-time 5% tax on California billionaires. (Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP via Getty Images)'/><p>Two economists debate what California's vote on Prop 40 means for the wealth tax movement.</p><p>(Image credit: FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)</p><img src='https://media.npr.org/include/images/tracking/npr-rss-pixel.png?story=g-s1-152755' />